We gauge the buzz factor and box-office potential for films headed for the cineplex.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Last summer, Star Wars tied up its intricately nerdy back-story with a final installment. This summer — which in movieland officially began this weekend — the X-Men are taking The Last Stand, and Tom Cruise does something other than babble giddily about diaper-changing in Mission: Impossible III.

Batman began. Now, Superman Returns, while just plain super Johnny Depp reprises his Oscar-nominated role in Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.

Ron Howard made the film of his career with Cinderella Man, and no one went to see it. He’s back with an adaptation of the epidemically popular The Da Vinci Code, and you can bet it won’t lack for viewers.

The Dukes of Hazzard got a glossy big-screen treatment. Miami Vice cruises along toward its own.

Lovers of cult awesomeness eagerly awaited George A. Romero’s zombie-fest Land of the Dead. The line for Snakes on a Plane starts here.

Kiddies thrilled to the digital animation of Madagascar. Over the Hedge and Cars aim to anchor their stories with ever-improving technology as they lure the little ones (and, one hopes, entertain their parents, too).

The Longest Yard brushed off its ’70s predecessor and went new millennium. The Poseidon Adventure is transforming into simply Poseidon.

War of the Worlds invoked the terror of 9-11 in the guise of an alien invasion. World Trade Center invokes the terror of 9-11, period.

Wedding Crashers cemented the raunchy yet romcom-friendly popularity of Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson. Looking to capitalize on similar formulas are The Break-Up, with Vaughn and alleged real-life love Jennifer Aniston; and Me, You and Dupree, with Wilson, Kate Hudson and Matt Dillon.

The 40-Year-Old Virgin deftly executed offbeat hilarity. The Jack Black vehicle Nacho Libre (from the Napoleon Dynamite team) may result in the same mixture of audiences split between dying of laughter and just not quite getting it.

We could go on clear past Labor Day. But the interesting thing is that although almost all of this summer’s contenders have at the very least a distant antecedent, this year’s simply seem better. A highly scientific analysis reveals the cause of this improved outlook to be the direct result of the following factors:

1. No more Star Wars.

2. Snakes on a Plane.

Read on for a look at the movies we’re most (and least) excited to get a look at during the coming months, divided into categories that — as befits the season — mark the relative heat of their buzz and our expectations. And for a complete, annotated list of all the films opening this summer, check out southflorida.com/movies.

Downright Chilly

Just My Luck — If it weren’t enough that the trailer for this romantic comedy looks to be the most appallingly awful of its genre since Sarah Michelle Gellar’s Simply Irresistible, the poster features star Lindsay Lohan winking in the most vehemently lurid, vile fashion imaginable. Shudder. (Opens Friday.)