Monday, March 22, 2004 - 12:55 PM

Report: How Does Your Favorite Show Stack Up?

By Brian Ford Sullivan

CHICAGO (thefutoncritic.com) — While it’s easy to say show X beats show Y, the reality is that a show’s overall viewership isn’t the only indicator of how well it is or is not doing.

The deeper question programmers and network executives ask is if the show is helping them. Since, for example, it’s obvious that "The Brotherhood of Poland, N.H." wasn’t expected to beat "Law & Order" on Wednesday nights, the question becomes did it help improve CBS’ viewership in that time slot? That question gives a better sense about the overall health of a series rather than going down the top 100 or so list each week.

With that in mind we’ve composed a report on the overall health of all the series on the six major broadcast networks by looking at how they compare with last season. Are returning series doing better or worse now? Are new series helping increase the network’s time slot average from last season? And in that same respect, are returning series in new time slots helping increase the network’s time slot average in their new homes?

The report was based with the following facts in mind:

— For returning series, the percentages are based on the total viewership average for new episodes this season (9/22/03-3/7/04) versus the total viewership average for new episodes at this point last season (9/23/02-3/9/03). This comparison allows us to see year-to-year whether a returning show is up or down from last season.

— For new series, the percentages are based on the total viewership average for new episodes this season (9/22/03-3/7/04) versus the total viewership average for the series’ current time slot for all of last season (9/23/02-5/21/03). This comparison allows us to see how a new series compares with everything else the network tried in its time period last season (series, movies, specials, sports, etc.).

— In all these comparisons, only new episodes that aired in the show’s regular time slot are counted (i.e. the post-Super Bowl episode of "Survivor" isn’t factored into the average). As for the time period averages (9/23/02-5/21/03), the comparison is with the weekly average for the whole season and includes all new episodes, repeats, movies, specials, etc. that aired in the time slot last season. (In other words, new episodes of "Tarzan" this season versus the WB’s time slot average for Sundays at 9:00/8:00c for all of last season.) Also note that returning series this season which premiered after 3/9/03 last season (i.e. "Wanda at Large," "America’s Next Top Model," etc.) are treated as "new" in the sense that year-to-year comparisons cannot be made.

— And finally, only shows that have aired more than one episode this season (as of 3/7/04) are included. This means "Crossing Jordan" and "Stephen King’s Kingdom Hospital," for example, are not listed.

RETURNING SERIES: DOING BETTER OR WORSE?

BIGGEST GAINS BY RETURNING SERIES (SAME TIME SLOT)

+28.64% - "american idol (tue.)" +25.64% - "american idol (wed.)" +9.59% - "20/20" +9.20% - "without a trace" +7.11% - "less than perfect" +4.78% - "60 minutes" +3.82% - "fear factor" +3.10% - "c.s.i.: miami" +1.25% - "primetime thursday" +0.89% - "survivor"

BIGGEST LOSSES BY RETURNING SERIES (SAME TIME SLOT)

 31.19% - "the bachelorette"
 24.19% - "the mole"
 21.22% - "american dreams"
 20.58% - "malcolm in the middle"
 20.57% - "the simpsons"
 20.42% - "frasier"
 19.04% - "gilmore girls"
 18.64% - "seventh heaven"
 18.30% - "star trek: enterprise"
 17.94% - "n.y.p.d. blue"
 16.99% - "judging amy"
 15.91% - "cops (2)"
 14.31% - "the west wing"
 13.94% - "my wife and kids"
 13.72% - "the parkers"
 13.71% - "the bachelor"
 12.61% - "twenty four"
 12.39% - "the guardian"
 10.43% - "the district"
 9.95% - "friends"
 9.81% - "law & order"
 9.64% - "alias"
 9.63% - "er"
 9.00% - "everwood"
 8.05% - "girlfriends"
 6.96% - "everybody loves raymond"
 6.72% - "cops (1)"
 6.70% - "law & order: criminal intent"
 6.41% - "according to jim"
 6.05% - "wwe smackdown"
 5.93% - "that ’70s show"
 4.68% - "america’s most wanted"
 4.21% - "eight simple rules"
 2.87% - "dateline nbc (sun.)"
 2.42% - "monday night football"
 2.24% - "60 minutes II"
 1.93% - "charmed"
 0.93% - "c.s.i.: crime scene investigation"
 0.82% - "half & half"

BIGGEST GAINS BY RETURNING SERIES (NEW TIME SLOT)

+17.66% - "surreal life" +12.56% - "the jamie kennedy experiment" +8.44% - "angel"

BIGGEST LOSSES BY RETURNING SERIES (NEW TIME SLOT)

 73.37% - "joe millionaire"
 57.97% - "oliver beene"
 57.50% - "l.a. dragnet"
 49.79% - "boston public"
 37.56% - "good morning, miami"
 34.94% - "scrubs"
 34.59% - "king of the hill"
 30.95% - "boomtown"
 29.51% - "the george lopez show"
 29.18% - "one on one"
 28.09% - "grounded for life"
 26.42% - "smallville"
 20.36% - "what i like about you"
 19.80% - "ed"
 19.32% - "yes, dear"
 17.90% - "america’s funniest home videos"
 17.50% - "third watch"
 17.14% - "the practice"
 17.05% - "still standing"
 16.53% - "hack"
 16.38% - "law & order: s.v.u."
 16.36% - "j.a.g."
 14.99% - "life with bonnie"
 14.94% - "reba"
 14.88% - "will & grace"
 13.57% - "king of queens"
 7.37% - "dateline nbc (fri.)"
 7.03% - "48 hours"
 5.26% - "becker"
 2.06% - "the bernie mac show"

NEW SERIES: HELPING OR HURTING?

BIGGEST GAINS BY NEW SERIES (VERSUS LAST SEASON’S TIME PERIOD AVERAGE)

+212.67% - "america’s next top model" +53.40% - "my big fat obnoxious fiance" +32.39% - "steve harvey’s big time" +32.21% - "joan of arcadia" +31.98% - "rock me baby" +21.95% - "the apprentice" +15.32% - "cold case" +12.62% - "all about the andersons" +12.56% - "world’s craziest videos" +11.93% - "whoopi" +7.84% - "the handler" +7.65% - "all of us" +7.52% - "two and a half men" +6.75% - "hope & faith" +6.44% - "happy family" +3.28% - "average joe" +1.54% - "las vegas"

BIGGEST LOSSES BY NEW SERIES (VERSUS LAST SEASON’S TIME PERIOD AVERAGE)

 61.07% - "a minute with stan hooper"
 52.49% - "skin"
 41.73% - "one tree hill"
 40.69% - "miss match"
 36.39% - "luis"
 35.90% - "10-8"
 35.39% - "arrested development"
 31.69% - "married to the kellys"
 30.66% - "line of fire"
 26.48% - "tru calling"
 24.93% - "the brotherhood of poland, n.h."
 24.77% - "wanda at large"
 24.19% - "karen sisco"
 22.71% - "the simple life"
 21.43% - "the o.c."
 21.09% - "run of the house"
 20.96% - "it’s all relative"
 17.56% - "like family"
 15.01% - "i’m with her"
 14.44% - "coupling"
 13.90% - "the lyon’s den"
 10.81% - "forever eden"
 10.28% - "threat matrix"
 5.30% - "jake 2.0"
 3.62% - "the tracy morgan show"
 2.87% - "primetime monday"
 1.82% - "star search"
 1.58% - "the help"
 1.44% - "the mullets"
 1.06% - "navy n.c.i.s."
 0.69% - "totally outrageous behavior"
 0.28% - "eve"
 0.04% - "tarzan"

RETURING SERIES IN NEW TIME PERIODS: HELPING OR HURTING?

BIGGEST GAINS BY RETURNING SERIES IN THEIR NEW TIME SLOTS (VERSUS LAST SEASON’S TIME PERIOD AVERAGE)

+62.85% - "smallville" +39.94% - "j.a.g." +39.30% - "reba" +37.20% - "law & order: s.v.u." +21.99% - "scrubs" +15.55% - "king of queens" +13.14% - "surreal life" +4.18% - "the jamie kennedy experiment" +9.37% - "angel" +0.74% - "dateline nbc (fri.)"

BIGGEST LOSSES BY RETURNING SERIES IN THEIR NEW TIME SLOTS (VERSUS LAST SEASON’S TIME PERIOD AVERAGE)

 50.95% - "boomtown"
 48.27% - "good morning, miami"
 38.20% - "joe millionaire"
 36.08% - "oliver beene"
 35.57% - "l.a. dragnet"
 34.27% - "grounded for life"
 32.50% - "third watch"
 27.98% - "the bernie mac show"
 26.24% - "the practice"
 22.20% - "ed"
 20.85% - "the george lopez show"
 20.64% - "boston public"
 19.32% - "yes, dear"
 17.03% - "what i like about you"
 13.66% - "hack"
 11.21% - "america’s funniest home videos"
 10.21% - "48 hours"
 10.21% - "becker"
 9.24% - "one on one"
 8.01% - "will & grace"
 4.15% - "still standing"
 3.68% - "king of the hill"
 3.45% - "life with bonnie"

Some observations from looking at this data:

— "American Idol" keeps on getting bigger and bigger: the series is up north of 25% for both its Tuesday and Wednesday editions, an amazing feat considering both finished in the top 10 last season.

— UPN’s "America’s Next Top Model" is by far and away the MVP of the netlet’s schedule: the series has literally tripled the network’s audience in the Tuesday, 9:00/8:00c hour from last season.

— While "Smallville," "Scrubs," "Law & Order: S.V.U.," "J.A.G." and "King of Queens" are down by double digits from last season since taking their new time slots, all five series are helping their respective network’s schedules significantly. For example, "Smallville," while down 26.42% from its Tuesday numbers, nevertheless has built on the WB’s Wednesday, 8:00/7:00c time period average from last season by 62.85%.

— Except for "Charmed" (down 1.93%), "Angel" (up 8.44%), "The Surreal Life" (up 17.66%) and "The Jamie Kennedy Experiment" (up 12.56%) all of the WB’s returning series are down noticably from last season: "7th Heaven" (down 18.64%), "Smallville" (down 26.42%), "Everwood" (down 9.00%), "Gilmore Girls" (down 19.04%), "Reba" (down 14.94%), "Grounded for Life" (down 28.09%), "What I Like About You" (down 20.36%). And when you factor in that both "Angel" (Sundays to Wednesday) and "The Surreal Life" (Thursdays to Sundays) are airing in new time periods this season (with more significant lead-ins to boot) that fact looks all the more troubling.

— Success is all relative: while barely 3.29 million viewers watch "Steve Harvey’s Big Time," it’s nevertheless helped the WB’s Thursday, 8:00/7:00c time period average by 32.39%, a growth only matched by just two other new series, "America’s Next Top Model" and "My Big Fat Obnoxious Fiance."

— "Without a Trace," which is up 9.20% this season, seems to be stealing viewership directly from "ER," which is down 9.63% this season. (Fellow Thursday, 10:00/9:00c time slot rival "Primetime Thursday" on ABC is about on par with last season - up 1.25%).

— FOX’s Sunday lineup is down across the board: tentpoles "The Simpsons" (down 20.57%) and "Malcolm in the Middle" (down 20.58%) are down by virtually the same amount while relocated "King of the Hill," which spent most of last season sandwiched between the two, is down 34.59% since moving to the 7:00/6:00c hour.

Source: Nielsen Media Research