One of these years, the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences will shock the entertainment world and anoint a fresh and unpredictable crop of shows and performers in nominations for the Primetime Emmy Awards. But as we will learn Thursday with the traditional predawn announcement of the noms, this almost certainly isn’t the year.

The reading of the big names in the 5:35 a.m. nominations unveiling at the academy’s North Hollywood headquarters is expected to offer the typical collection of repeat nominees in the comedy and drama series as well as lead and supporting actor/actress categories. And in the process, plenty of long-deserving candidates will again be passed over in the rush to honor the usual suspects.

Not that there won’t be an exception or two. This too is part of recent nomination tradition.

In the comedy series race, for instance, the acclaimed Fox freshman "Arrested Development" is favored to unseat perhaps NBC’s "Will & Grace" from the nominees list and join "Friends," "Curb Your Enthusiasm," "Sex and the City" and last year’s winner "Everybody Loves Raymond." Or it could be five-time winner "Frasier" that breaks back in during its swan-song season. But with "Friends" and "Sex and the City" also saying farewell, it’s tough to imagine them not being honored.

The ineligibility of Emmy lock "Six Feet Under" this year because of the long break between seasons will open things up in the outstanding drama series race but probably only the slightest bit. The slam-dunks are HBO’s "The Sopranos," Fox’s "24" and NBC’s "The West Wing," with CBS’ "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation" and possibly FX’s heavily buzzed "Nip/Tuck" or CBS’ "Without a Trace" holding down the other slots.

While there is a belief that "West Wing’s" best days are behind it, it’s difficult to fathom a show that has won the drama prize four years running not even being nominated. But stranger things probably have happened.

In any case, if tradition holds, four of the five series nominees in both categories will be repeats of last year, which also were repeats from 2002. Once a comedy or drama breaks through to Emmy-worthy status, it takes almost an act of God for it to fall off the nominees list, seeming to stand as a lifetime appointment.

This creates an environment in which numerous shows that should be nominated simply never get there. One of the great embarrassments for the TV Academy has to be the fact that "Roseanne" not only never won a top comedy series Emmy but was never even nominated.

Ditto for "The Simpsons" in the comedy category, which future generations will no doubt look back on with shock and bewilderment. Yes, it’s won in animation, but there were years when it was the funniest show on TV and somehow couldn’t make the comedy series cut.

This year’s list of ongoing comedy oversights is likely to include the WB’s "Gilmore Girls," USA Network’s "Monk," NBC’s "Scrubs," ABC’s "Less Than Perfect," Fox’s "The Bernie Mac Show," the CBS rookie "Two and a Half Men" and Comedy Central’s "Reno 911!" and "Chappelle’s Show." Such deserving dramas as FX’s "The Shield," CBS’ "Cold Case" and "Judging Amy," ABC’s "Alias," HBO’s "The Wire" and "Deadwood" and NBC’s "American Dreams" also won’t get nominations, barring a significant shakeup in the way these things work.

Basic cable is increasingly seen as a serious Emmy player. But that seems to extend only to the acting categories and not those for top series.

And while the BBC America cult comedy hit "The Office" wasn’t eligible for the Emmy this year because of a qualifying-episode snafu, the fact that the quirky series won this year’s Golden Globe for top comedy means that its absence leaves a genuine void in the category.

Speaking of acting, the lead drama actor field is led by three-time winner James Gandolfini of "The Sopranos," who could well be a lock for a fourth statuette. Kiefer Sutherland of "24" and Martin Sheen of "West Wing" also will likely be back (Sheen for the fifth time, looking for his first win). "The Shield’s" Michael Chiklis, who shocked the world with his 2002 Emmy triumph, should make the list, with the fifth slot a race between William Peterson of "CSI," Anthony LaPaglia of "Without a Trace" and the "Nip/Tuck" duo of Dylan Walsh and Julian McMahon.

On the drama lead actress side, three-time victor Edie Falco of "The Sopranos" again leads the charge, with newcomer Amber Tamblyn from "Joan of Arcadia" almost certain to be honored along with "West Wing’s" Allison Janney (a three-time winner), Marg Helgenberger of "CSI" and either Jennifer Garner from ABC’s "Alias" or Joely Richardson from "Nip/Tuck." Also duking it out for the fifth slot will be five-time nominee Amy Brenneman for "Judging Amy," Jill Hennessy from NBC’s resurgent "Crossing Jordan" and Kathryn Morris from "Cold Case."

Among comedy lead actors, "Frasier’s" Kelsey Grammer last year failed to earn a nomination for the first time in 10 years. But he could well bounce back on the heels of the show’s curtain-call campaign, and an 11th would tie him with Ted Danson for the most acting series noms ever. Grammer’s competition is expected to include last year’s winner Tony Shalhoub of "Monk," Ray Romano for "Raymond," Larry David for "Curb Your Enthusiasm" and either Bernie Mac for "Bernie Mac," Eric McCormack for "Will & Grace," Matthew Perry for "Friends" or Jason Bateman for "Arrested Development."

The lead comedy actress race, meanwhile, should feature last year’s winner Debra Messing ("Will & Grace"), 2002 winner Jennifer Aniston ("Friends") and "Raymond’s" Patricia Heaton (who won in 2000 and ’01). Perpetual bridesmaids Sarah Jessica Parker ("Sex and the City") and Jane Kaczmarek (Fox’s "Malcolm in the Middle") could hold down the other two, each seeking their first trophy following four consecutive nominations.

Other possibilities include Lisa Kudrow or the never-nominated Courteney Cox for "Friends" or the tragically overlooked Lauren Graham of "Gilmore Girls," a series that is long overdue for some Emmy attention.

In the longform races, meanwhile, look for HBO’s six-hour miniseries masterpiece "Angels in America" to clean up and glean perhaps a record number of nominations. The dark horse in the miniseries race is Gregory Nava’s PBS drama "American Family," which deserves some recognition for star Edward James Olmos at the very least.