In talking to a few WWE and TV sources over the past few days, the consensus is that Les Moonves’ comments about the future of Smackdown on UPN, which were reported in the Oakland Tribune last week, were made to send a message to WWE as the sides move forward in negotiating a renewal of the deal for the company’s cable programming. According to everyone I have spoken with, Moonves is a calculating businessman and doesn’t just "make comments for no reasons". As the man who oversees CBS and UPN for Viacom, his influence throughout the corporation is very strong. He is very well aware of what Viacom paid for WWE programming on Spike, and is also aware that in the last deal that UPN did with WWE, they restructured the deal in such a way that WWE’s cut of the pie was reduced. Smart money says that is what Viacom wants to do with Raw and the other cable shows on the new contract.

The cable TV deal, which expires in September, is probably the biggest single hurdle that WWE must clear from a business standpoint this year as they are currently getting about $550,000 per week for the rights to their programming and they want to do everything that they can to, at least, keep that number where it is, despite the fact that their numbers have slipped since coming to Spike as the business itself has seen all its numbers drop due, in my opinion, to WWE creative’s inability to consistently tell good stories and develop interesting new talents, which they did in abundance in the time leading up to the first contract that they got from Viacom.

Given the fact that they have performed much lower than expected since jumping from the USA Network to TNN, now SpikeTV, it would seem that a drop in rights fees would be in order, even fair, but if you were on WWE’s side of the table, that isn’t a position that you would want to take. And they haven’t. They have shopped their shows around to other networks, such as their former home in USA. That was even mentioned a few months back in The Hollywood Reporter. Whether USA’s interest is legitimate or not really doesn’t matter at this point. It’s all part of the negotiation process, as was Moonves’ comments last week. At this point, there is a lot of posturing going on all around.

As mentioned above, Viacom paid top dollar in the fall of 2000 to lure Raw, Heat and the other shows away from USA. It’s also no secret that the first Raw on TNN (now SpikeTV) did a 5.5 cable rating and the numbers have gone downhill from there, to today’s level of the mid to high threes. On top of that, the rest of WWE’s cable programming has dropped considerably as well since leaving USA . Heat used to be in the 4.0 range and now usually does less than a 1.0. Superstars and Live Wire were good for a 2 every week. The WWE Experience and Velocity together usually do about a 1.0. All of this adds up to five years of Viacom overpaying for a product that has delivered 60 to 70% of what was expected of it. These things come to the surface when talking about a new deal.

Despite the less than expected ratings numbers, Spike remains interested in renewing WWE programming. Most weeks, Raw is still in the cable top 10 and the show is an integral part of Spike’s overall programming strategy of being the "Network For Men". They want to keep WWE on their network but they would like to do so at a more reasonable price, one that is fairer to both sides. WWE, obviously, wants as much as it can get and will continue to listen to outside offers. If it ends up that Spike is the only real bidder, they will hold out for as much as they can get, so Viacom has to play all the cards that they have in their hand as well, and that includes putting the future of Smackdown in jeopardy.

On top of that, there is a feeling within the TV industry that UPN, if it ends up coming to that, really wouldn’t be heartbroken to lose Smackdown. While it can’t be argued that the show is profitable and is one of the top rated programs on the network, it also can’t be argued that having pro wrestling on UPN places a stigma on the overall programming that they have there. UPN could develop the best show on TV and there would be people who won’t watch it because it’s on "that wrestling network".

In the past, that wasn’t a big deal since UPN was fighting for its life and, every year it seemed, there was a real chance that it could be shut down. In a situation like that, quantity trumps quality, especially when the quantity is delivering the best ratings that your network receives. Since UPN was put under Moonves’ watch however, those fears have somewhat subsided, and internally they have been trying to develop "smarter" TV shows to give the network a new "better" image. Obviously, Smackdown isn’t the best match for that kind of strategy.

And, if UPN decided to cut Smackdown loose, it would not be the first time that a network decided to let a show go that had helped build the network while the program still had a lot of life left in it. UPN knows this first hand, since they took "Buffy The Vampire Slayer" away from The WB a few years ago after Buffy became a cult hit on WB and was one of the network’s signature programs. In fact, WB had more to lose when they let Buffy go since it was critically acclaimed and was one of the network’s "darling" shows. It certainly didn’t come with the baggage that many viewers associate with Smackdown.

In the end, my own take on this is that it will all come down to money and business. Whether the USA Network is a player in the negotiations for the cable package or not (and I don’t know how seriously I take them being a player in this), is only part of the story. If WWE were to jump to USA, I think they immediately hurt their position with UPN and make Smackdown expendable. If they hold out for more than Spike thinks they are worth, but Spike gives in, the same thing could happen. How WWE handles these negotiations will shape both the rest of this year and the future of WWE on the whole.